A TRANSDISCIPLINARY, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS KEY RISKS FROM ARCTIC PERMAFROST THAW

Permafrost thaw poses significant risks to Arctic environments and livelihoods, impacting societies, cultures, health, ecosystems, and economies. However, existing studies lack comprehensive frameworks for understanding such impacts on coupled socio-ecological systems from a transdisciplinary perspective. To address this gap, we introduce a holistic, comparative, and transdisciplinary risk analysis based on multidirectional knowledge exchanges and thematic network analysis (Gartler, Scheer and Meyer et al. 2025). Local stakeholders and scientists’ perceptions shape our understanding of risks that we holistically define as dynamic socio-natural phenomena involving physical processes related to permafrost thaw, ensuing key hazards, and societal consequences. Consolidating findings from four regions (Longyearbyen, Svalbard, Norway; Avannaata Municipality, Greenland; Beaufort Sea region and Mackenzie River Delta, Canada; Bulunskiy District, Sakha Republic, Russia), we identify five key hazards of permafrost thaw: infrastructure failure, disruption of mobility and supplies, decreased water quality, challenges for food security, and exposure to diseases and contaminants. The novelty of this study resides in the comparative approach spanning different environmental and societal contexts, and transdisciplinary synthesis considering various risk perceptions. We present the main local risks from permafrost thaw faced by diverse Arctic communities, seen through the lenses of multiple scientific disciplines and local experts. Developing such an understanding is vital for informed policy-making and adaptation efforts.

References

Susanna Gartler, Johanna Scheer, Alexandra Meyer, with Khaled Abass, Annett Bartsch, Natalia Doloisio, Jade Falardeau, Gustaf Hugelius, Anna Irrgang, Jón Haukur Ingimundarson, Leneisja Jungsberg, Hugues Lantuit, Joan Nymand Larsen, Rachele Lodi, Victoria Sophie Martin, Louise Mercer, David Nielsen, Paul Overduin, Olga Povoroznyuk, Arja Rautio, Peter Schweitzer, Niek Jesse Speetjen, Soňa Tomaškovičová, Ulla Timlin, Jean-Paul Vanderlinden, Jorien Vonk, Levi Westerveld, and Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen. (2024) A transdisciplinary, comparative analysis reveals key risks from Arctic permafrost thaw. Communications Earth & Environment, 6(1), 21–20. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01883-w