Assessment of uncertainty to achieve CRMA goals of rare earth mining in Europe

Metallic and mineral raw materials demand is expected to significantly increase globally due to transition towards low carbon technologies and population growth. To meet its carbon emission reduction targets (net zero by 2045), the German Government aims to further expand technologies such as wind energy and electric vehicles, increasing the need for critical raw materials, including rare earth elements (REE). For that, the German Government aims to increase the amount of EVs on its roads from 1 million in 2021 to 15 million in 2030. Furthermore, it aims to increase onshore wind energy capacity from 56 GW to 115 GW and offshore capacity from 7 GW to 30 GW between 2020 and 2030. In order to achieve the goals, investments in REE mining and processing should be supported, along with the research on recycling and substitution. Since Germany and the EU27 rely on imports from countries with high market concentration, a resilient and sustainable REE supply is essential to avoid supply disruptions.

This study examines company announcements to assess whether the CRMA benchmarks are feasible for REE mining. We use the uncertainty of raw material projections to estimate the reasonability of CRMA to achieve 10% REE from mining in EU27 by 2030. Our results indicate that the achievement of the CRMA benchmark w.r.t. REE mined from EU27 deposits is not feasible in the given timeframe, but expected demand may be covered at a later stage if assumed results from scoping studies would turn out to become reserves.