Organic matter rich rocks are the main component of any petroleum system. Marine organic matter deposits form a major part of these rocks and are the source of most oil. Vertical and lateral heterogeneities in marine petroleum source rocks are widely observed and owed to the dynamics of deposition and preservation of marine organic matter. Such source rock heterogeneities add major challenges to hydrocarbon exploration and estimation of resources, therefore, quantification of source rock potential using numerical prediction tools can contribute significantly to reducing exploration risks and enhancing the accuracy of resource assessment.
We introduce here our innovative approach to modelling marine petroleum source rocks as part of an established forward stratigraphic modelling workflow. This enhanced workflow only requires minor additional input to a regular forward stratigraphic model in order to simulate marine source rocks deposition and preservation. Modelled source rock properties with this method include TOC, HI, thickness, net to gross, lithology, and other depositional environments properties allowing a sound source rock potential assessment.
Additionally, we assess uncertainty, sensitivity, and risk on source rock potential using an innovative response surface modelling approach which provides an efficient and effective way to understand the controls on any output property and quantify the associated risk.
To illustrate this new methodology, we will present the case of the Mesozoic Carson Basin offshore Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada.