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Uncertainty Analysis of CO2 Storage Capacity Estimation in Saline Aquifers of the German North Sea

The reliable estimation of the dynamic storage capacity for CO2 storage is a significant challenge due to the uncertainty of process parameters. In our study, we consider storage in the Triassic Bunter sandstone underneath the German sector of the North Sea.

We investigate CO2 injection into a saline aquifer, such as the Volpriehausen Sandstone by means of numerical simulations, to analyze the impact of parameter uncertainty on storage efficiency.

One of the main challenges for capacity estimations is the paucity of measurements regarding storage rock units like the Volpriehausen Sandstone for important process parameters such as relative permeabilities obtained from wells in the German North Sea. This requires the supplementation of measured parameters from the same storage rock units for instance from neighboring countries such as the Netherlands or Denmark.

We conduct flow simulations using TOUGH3 ECO2N and a self-developed framework for sensitivity analysis to investigate the parameter uncertainty of process parameters on storage efficiency.

Our results indicate that the level of uncertainty can significantly affect the estimation of storage capacity, and the accuracy of simulation results is highly dependent on certain input parameters.

This study provides insights into the impact of parameter uncertainty on the efficiency of CO2 storage. These findings are useful for future exploration, characterization, and operation of CO2 storage sites.


Jan Tecklenburg1, Stefan Knopf1, Franz May1
1Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), Germany
GeoBerlin 2023